山区沿河公路水毁危险性评价方法的研究

Assessment of flood-damage hazard of highway along river in mountainous areas

为了预测评价山区沿河公路水毁灾害,通过理论分析和专家系统调查,阐明了沿河公路水毁危险性的含义,确定了其主要危险因子(洪水流量、水位、流速)和次要危险因子(洪水持续时间、河流形态)。运用灰色系统的关联度方法,根据关联序确定了各危险因子的权重;在因子等级划分的基础上,提出了沿河公路水毁危险性指数的计算方法,并在工程中得到了应用。研究成果可供沿河公路水毁易发段危险性点及整个路段的评价参考。

In order to predict and assess the flood-damage hazard of highways along fiver in mountainous areas, this paper first explores the meaning of flood-damage hazard of highway along river, and then figure out three major haz- ard factors （flood flow, water level and flow velocity） and two minor factors （duration of flood, fiver morphology） based on theoretical analysis and expert system survey, and then determined the weights of these hazard factors in terms of their correlative sequence with the method of grey system correlation degree. With grading hazard factors, the calculation formula of flood-damage hazard index were established and applied to engineering projects. The re-search result may give a reference to application in both section and whole line assessment of flood-damage hazard of highway along river.