城市交通消散期事故高峰现象及成因

Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Peak Traffic Accidents in the City of Huizhou

学界对于交通事故高峰出现在交通高峰期还是之后的消散期存在争论,以惠州市中心城区为例,对城市交通事故进行研究,判别交通消散期事故高峰现象的存在性。以交通事故空间点数据为研究对象,使用核心密度估算法,分析交通事故的结构性特征和时空分布特征,并针对三个交通消散期研究其事故的具体特征及其成因。研究表明:惠州市中心城区交通消散期存在事故高峰现象,主要发生在上午和下午;机动车在交通事故中占主导地位;临近商业设施的交通消散期事故高峰现象最为明显;支路事故在晚间交通消散期后段出现了事故高峰;从上午到晚上,交通事故黑点从交通相关设施转移到商业设施。交通消散期事故高峰现象的形成与居民集中在交通消散期的非通勤交通行为、特定路段的小时交通量高峰出现在交通消散期,以及交通消散期内松懈的交通管制和驾驶行为等有一定的关系。

The rapid growth of automobile industries has increased traffic flows and traffic related accidents in urban areas during the recent years. Traffic jams and traffic accidents have major impacts on people＇ s daily life. There has been a growing body of literature investigating the characteristics and reasons of traffic accidents. A number of studies have focused on the temporal patterns of accidents and revealed that more accidents occur in day-time than night-time, afternoon than morning. However, there is no general agreement on whether peak traffic accidents always happen during the rush hours. This study aims to analyze the spatio-temporal patterns of traffic accidents in Huicheng District in Huizhou City, China. Specifically this study examines the temporal patterns of peak traffic accidents and their relationship with nearby land use. The study reveals that peak traffic accidents do not coincide with rush hours. Motor-vehicles accidents, which account for most traffic accidents, concentrate near commercial facilities, especially in the late evenings. Motor-vehicles accidents on secondary roads peak in the late evenings, while those on main roads peak right after the rush hours in the morning and the afternoon. One possible explanation of such patterns is that traffic policing is more strictly enforced and drivers are more vigilant during the rush hours.