公共基础设施投资区域效应与省际分布——基于我国28个省区数据的实证分析

Regional Effects of Public Infrastructure Investment and Provincial Distribution——Empirical Analysis Based on Data from 28 Provinces in China

本文利用我国1990～2010年28个省区数据,运用VAR模型验证了省级公共基础设施投资对私人投资、就业和产出的影响,同时根据每个省区相对经济份额测算了公共基础设施投资效应的省际分布。实证结果表明:公共基础设施投资对多数地区的经济活动有促进作用;从全国范围看,区域内公共基础设施投资的直接作用远大于区域外公共基础设施投资的溢出效应;公共基础设施投资效应在地区间相对分布并不均衡,东部地区受益较多,中西部地区受益较少。

This article illustrates the test result of the regional effects of China＇s provincial-level public infrastructure investment on private investment, employment and output and quantifies the provincial distribution of the effects by using the 1990-2010 time series data of 28 provinces in China and also by creating VAR models. Empirical results show that： public infrastructure investment has been a powerful instrument to promote economic performance in most regions; at the aggregate level, direct effects from the local public infrastructure investment are more important than the spillover effects from public infrastructure investment elsewhere; in addi- tion, the effects are distributed unbalanced across regions so that the eastern regions benefit the most while the central and western re- gions get less obviously.