中国海洋产业贸易的影响因素与潜力分析——基于引力模型的实证研究

An empirical analysis on export trade influence factors and potential of marine products in China:based on Gravity Model

作为沿海大国,海洋产业贸易竞争力是经济综合竞争力的重要体现。以传统的海洋渔业为例,利用国际贸易引力模型分析2002～2009年中国海产品出口贸易的影响因素,并通过估计结果测算了各进口市场的出口潜力。结果表明,引力模型对中国海产品出口具有较显著的解释力:进口国的经济总量、经济发展程度、消费偏好、中国海产品生产能力、APEC组织安排均对中国海产品出口贸易具有明显的正效应,而贸易双方的距离具有显著的负效应;根据贸易潜力测算结果,可以将中国海产品出口目的地分为减退型、稳定型、扩张型和波动型四大类。

As one of the biggest coastal countries, trade competitiveness of marine industries is important embodiment of economic comprehensive competitiveness. Taking the traditional marine fishery as an example, using panel dada during 2002-2009, the paper analyzes the export trade influence factors of Chinese marine products by means of the international trade gravity model, and measure the export potential to import markets of Chinese marine products. The result indicates that the gravity model have distinct explanation of Chinese marine products export---economic aggregate, economic development degree, consumption preference, production capacity of Chinese marine products and APEC have evident positive effect, but the distance between import and export markets has distinct negative effects; according to computing result of trade potential, the export destination of Chinese marine products can be divided into following four types---recessionary, steady, expanding and fluctuant.