基于“国家公顷”生态足迹模型的广东省生态安全研究

Ecological Security Study of Guangdong Province based on "National Hectare" Ecological Footprint Model

从国家公顷概念的角度出发,利用广东省与国家土地平均生物生产力的比较关系修正了传统生态足迹模型中的均衡因子与产量因子,更加准确地计算了广东省人均生态足迹及人均生态承载力及其变化趋势。结果显示,研究期内广东省土地生态供给出现持续赤字的情况,人均生态赤字呈现先下降后上升的趋势。通过人均生态赤字与人均收入建立的协整关系模型发现,广东省人均生态赤字的逐年累积效应显著,而人均收入用于消减生态赤字的效应相对滞后。因此,转变经济增长和居民消费方式仍是广东省社会、经济、环境协调发展亟需解决的关键问题。

From the perspective of national hectares, the paper validates the relationship of average biological production capability between Guangdong Province and the whole China, and revises the equivalence factor and yield factor of traditional ecological footprint model, to get the more accurate results of ecological footprint and ecological capacity in Guangdong Province. The results show that a sustained deficit of land ecological supply is presented during the study period, and the ecological deficit shows an upward trend after a drop. Through the co-integration model of ecological deficit and income per capital, we find the cumulative effect of ecological deficit is significant, and the extinction effect of income is lagging behind. Thus, the transformation of economic growth and residents＇ consumption patterns still are the key issues of Guangdong harmonious development.