我国产险公司再保险需求影响因素分析——基于BP神经网络方法的实证研究

Reinsurance Demand and Its Determinants of China's Property Insurance Industry——Based on BP Neural Network

本文在对我国产险公司再保险需求影响因素分析的基础上,选取1997年～2010年影响我国产险公司的宏观经济数据与内部企业数据,利用BP神经网络构建模型,对我国产险公司再保险需求进行拟合及测试(预测)分析,并采用MIV方法对各个变量进行相关性分析。本文实证研究结果表明,外部宏观经济因素对我国产险公司再保险需求影响较大,而内部因素影响效果不明显,我国产险公司再保险整体表现出"有效需求不足"的现象。

Based on the analysis of factors affecting reinsurance demands and relevant economic data and insurers＇ data during the period from 1997 to 2010, the paper established a BP Neural Network Model to simulate and predict reinsurance demands and its determinants of China r Property ＆ Casualty insurance industry. It also carried out an empirical analysis with the MIV method on various factors＇ correlation level. The results indicated that： external macroeconomic factors played an important role in reinsurance demands of China r property insurance industry, while the internal factors didn＇t have an obvious effect. The whole property insurance industry showed a phenomenon of ＂lack of effective reinsurance demands＂.