基于VAR模型的青岛市经济增长与环境污染的实证研究

An Empirical Study of Qingdao Economic Growth and Environmental Pollution Based on the VAR model

通过以青岛市1985—2010年的人均GDP水平和主要污染物排放总量为样本建立向量自回归模型,并利用此模型对青岛市环境污染与经济增长之间的动态关系进行考察发现,经济增长会加速环境污染,由于环境承载力的存在,环境污染对经济的负面影响存在滞后期。作为山东半岛蓝色经济区的重要组成部分,青岛市必须加快优化产业和能源结构,大力发展海洋经济和循环经济,加快建设全国蓝色经济领军城市。

According to Qingdao 1985-2010 GDP per capita and the total emissions of major pollutants, vector regression model was established. Using this model, the dynamic relationship was examined between environmental pollution and economic growth of Qingdao. The results show that economic growth will accelerate environmental pollution and there is a lag period negative effect of envi- ronment pollution on economy due to the existence of environmental bearing capacity. As an important part Shandong Peninsula Blue E- conomic Zone, Qingdao must speed up the optimization of industrial and energy structure, develop the marine economy and circular e- conomy, accelerate the construction of the national blue economy leader city.