渤海海冰数值模式的研究进展

Advances in Sea Ice Numerical Models for Bohai Sea

根据渤海海冰冰情,从热力和动力两个方面综述了渤海海冰数值模式的研究进展。从热力参数方案和气候特点上,展望新一代渤海中小尺度短期海冰热力模式;从海冰动力模式中3种常用数值方法的主要特点和实际应用情况上,论述SPH(Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics)方法在渤海海冰短期预报的发展前景。在此基础上,结合海洋气象的发展,讨论海冰短期预报的关键技术。将海冰数值预报模式与传统的中长期海冰统计预报有机地结合起来将是渤海海冰模式未来的发展方向。

Based on the ice characteristics of the Bohai Sea, the advances in the researches on sea ice numerical models are reviewed from the two aspects： thermodynamic and dynamic. The new generation sea ice thermodynamic models for the Bohai sea are discussed from the thermodynamic parameter schemes and climate characteristics. The SPH （Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics） method is introduced for ice short- term prediction of the Bohai sea, and the main characteristics and practical application of three common numerical methods in dynamic sea ice model development are described. Whereby, combined with the development of marine meteorology, the key technology of short-term ice forecasts is discussed. It is pointed that an operational sea ice forecast system with numerical and statistical techniques would be the future direction of sea ice model development.