四川省自然灾害特点及损失演变趋势分析

An Analysis of the Characteristics and Loss Evolution Trend of Natural Calamities in Sichuan Province

【目的】分析四川省自然灾害的特点及损失演变趋势,并做出短期预测。【方法】通过文献和数据资料分析四川省自然灾害的特点,并建立长期趋势拟合、谐波周期分析、误差预测调整的时间序列组合模型,以此对四川省自然灾害直接经济损失进行趋势分析和预测。【结果】四川省自然灾害活动频繁,常年主要受到洪涝及旱灾的威胁,灾害具有显著的地域性和周期性,灾害组合具有链带性和群发性;灾害直接经济损失具有明显的上升趋势,且存在10年左右的长周期和2、4年左右的短周期。【结论】未来3年四川省自然灾害仍旧严重,应重视减灾工作开展,把生态环境改善放在首要地位,做好防洪和抗旱及地质灾害的排查和整治工作,并规范人类行为,强化社会系统减灾作用。

[Objective] Analyze the characteristics and the evolution trend of losses of natural dis- asters in Sichuan province, and make a short-term forecast. [Method] According to the literature and data, analyze he natural characteristics of Sichuan province, and establish long-term trend fit- ting, harmonic cycle analysis and error prediction adjusting of time series combination model, in order to analyze and predict the trend of the direct economic losses of natural disasters. [Results] Natural calamities happen frequently in Sichuan province which mainly affected by the flood and drought perennial. It shows a significant regionality and perodicity, as well as a chainity and group-occurring in the calamities combination. And the direct economic losses are obviously ris- ing. And there is a long cycle of 10 years and a short cycle of 2 or 4 year. [Conclusion] In the next three years ,natural disasters in sichuan province will be still serious. The work of disaster reducing will be pay attention to, the primary work is on the ecological environment. Flood and drought control, and geological disasters and renovation work should also be well done. Human behavior should be regulated, and the social system and function should be strengthen to reduce the occurrence of disaster.