深圳市1986―2020年间海岸线动态变化特征及成因分析

Dynamic Change of the Shoreline in Shenzhen during 1986-2020

综合利用LandsatTM影像数据、土地利用变更调查数据和城市总体规划成果资料,对深圳市1986―2020年期间海岸线变化进行回顾和预测分析,总结了海岸线动态变化区域土地利用时空动态变化的基本特征并进行了成因探讨。结果表明:深圳市在1986―2020年间海岸线人为改造活动表现出明显的西强东弱的空间分异格局,其中西部海岸线即将全部被改造成人工岸线,东部还保留约100.4km的天然岸线;全市6处岸线热点变化区域累积填海造地总面积将达到108.9km^2,目前已经完成74.0km^2。缓解土地资源供需紧张矛盾、大型工程建设、水产养殖区拓展和海岸带的自然条件差异是海岸线时空动态变化的主要影响因素;深圳市大规模海岸带人为改造已经显现出一系列负面生态环境效应。

With the Landsat TM remote sensing data, survey data of land use changes and data in the Comprehensive Plan of Shenzhen City （2010-2020）, this paper reviewed and predicted the shoreline changes in Shenzhen form 1986 to 2020, summarizing and discussing dynamic change characteristics of land use in relevant areas. Since 1986 there has been an obvious pattem that the movement of changing shoreline by human force in Shenzhen is much stronger in the western part than in the eastern part. The whole western shoreline will be artificial soon, while there will be 100.4 km natural shoreline left in the east. Land reclamation area of the 6 hotspots has totalled up to 74.0 km2 and will reach 108.9 km2. The main factors affecting shoreline dynamic changes are the need to ease fierce conflicts between land resource supply and demand, large-scale construction projects and the expansion of aquaculture area. The large-scale transformation of coastal zone in Shenzhen has brought about a series of negative environmental effects.