GIS支持下的陕西省粮食生产时空变异研究

Temporal and spatial variability of grain production in Shaanxi based on GIS

综合应用变异系数、重心迁移模型、比较优势模型以及统计学和GIS分析方法,探讨了1980-2009年陕西省粮食生产时空格局演进过程。结果表明:陕西省粮食生产总体变化显著,粮食产量呈波动增长趋势,但粮食种植面积不断减少将危及区域粮食安全;根据粮食产量高低和生产稳定性特征,将陕西省分为高产低变型(宝鸡、咸阳、渭南、汉中)、低产低变型(安康、商洛)、高产高变型(西安)、低产高变型(榆林、延安、铜川)四个粮食类型区;各地区人均粮食产量差异较大,铜川、西安和商洛粮食紧缺,宝鸡、咸阳、渭南和榆林粮有盈余,延安、汉中和安康粮食基本自给;粮食生产总体分布不均衡,南北差异较大,重心移动的阶段性明显,总体呈"北上东进"的移动趋势;各类粮食作物具有比较优势的区域分布具有一定规律,小麦、玉米和大豆、稻谷生产具有优势的地区分别在关中、陕北、陕南。研究结果以期为粮食安全背景下的区域粮食生产宏观布局与优化以及农业的结构调整提供较为科学的决策依据。

Based on the coefficient of variation,center of gravity migration model,comparative advantage model,statistical methods and GIS techniques,the change of grain production in Shaanxi province from 1980 to 2009 was discussed.The study showed that the overall grain production changed significantly in Shaanxi province,The total grain yield,unit area grain yield and grain yield per capita increased all,but the grain planting area decreased continuously,and the grain security will be threatened.According to the level of grain production and stability characteristics of the grain production,in this study the author divided Shaanxi into four regions of grain production,it including high output and stable regions,such as Baoji,Xianyang,Weinan and Hanzhong,low output and stable regions,such as Ankang and Shangluo,high output but unstable region,such as Xi＇an,low output and unstable region,such as Yulin,Yan＇an and Tongchuan.There were large diversities in grain production per capita among different regions,and there were grain shortage in Tongchuan,Xi＇an and Shangluo.The grain reserves in Baoji,Xianyang,Weinan and Yulin were sufficient,the grain self supply ability regions were Yan＇an,Hanzhong and Ankang.The overall distribution of grain production was not balanced,and there was big difference between northern and southern of Shaanxi province.The grain output center of gravity moved remarkably from the southwest to the northeast of Shaanxi province,and there were four obvious movement stages.We analyzed the regional comparative superiorities of some major crops,it was showed wheat production had an advantage in the Guanzhong Plain,corn and soybean had an advantage in northern shaanxi,and paddy had an advantage in southern Shaanxi.The results of this research aimed at providing more scientific basis for decision making in the distribution and further optimization of grain production,adjustment of agricultural structure under the context of the grain security.