基于RS和GIS的天津市核心区城市空间扩展研究

Urban expansion in the core area of Tianjin based RS and GIS

基于遥感(RS)和GIS技术,分析研究1998年以来天津市核心区的城市空间扩展轨迹,并初步预测城市空间扩张变化的趋势。研究方法主要采用空间探索性分析(ESDA)、GIS空间分析法、灰色预测方法等。研究结果表明:天津市核心区城市形态,已由双核结构转变为一个扁担挑两头的空间格局;城市空间扩展已进入工业化成熟阶段,中心区扩展已大大减速,在边缘区域相对优越的地方出现较小的核心区域;在经济、规划与政策综合驱动下,城市扩展主要集中在东部、西部、京津塘高速公路沿线及滨海新区核心区;扩展中水体转变为建设用地的较多,对陆地及海洋生态的环境影响较大;预计2020年左右将逐步开始进入均衡发展的郊区化阶段,城市空间扩展可能会出现蔓延扩展方式。该研究为天津市城市空间及交通等规划提供了重要的前期基础分析。

The urban expansion in the core area of Tianjin since 1998 was analyzed based on remote sensing（RS） and GIS technology.The main methods are space exploratory analysis（ESDA） and GIS space analyzes method and Grey prediction.The analysis found that urban form of the core area of Tianjin has been transformed into the spatial pattern of one line linking the two core areas;urban expansion has entered a mature stage of industrialization and the central area of expansion has been greatly slowed down and in the edge region where there was relatively more favorable small core area;urban expansion was mainly focused in the east,west,along the highway and the Binhai New Area Jingjintang core area,that driven mainly by the economic,planning and policy synthesis.In the expansion area there were too much water transform into land,it had greater impact on the marine ecological environment.2020 will gradually enter the suburbanization stage of balanced development,urban spread may occur.This study provides a good basic for urban space and transportation planning of Tianjin.