未来气候变化对东北地区玉米单产影响的模拟研究

Modelling the impacts of future climate change on maize productivity in northeast China

东北地区是我国具有战略意义的商品粮基地,研究气候变化对东北地区玉米产量的影响具有重要意义。采用区域气候模式与作物生长WOFOST模型相结合的方法,模拟了基准气候(BS,1961-1990年)和B2情景下2011-2050年东北地区的玉米单产,初步预测了未来气候情景下玉米单产的变化状况。结果表明:WOFOST作物模型能较好的模拟东北地区的玉米产量,模型检验结果表明,该模型对玉米产量的模拟在70%～80%年份里的模拟精确度在80%以上。模拟结果显示:未来10-20年内,东北地区北部大部地区玉米具有增产潜力,但就北地区整体而言,总体增产幅度较小。2030s和2040s东北地区大部受气候因素影响表现为减产。未来40年,受气候变化影响东北地区玉米单产总体表现为减产,减产幅度为9.5%。由于目前的研究结果存在未考虑农业生产的适应措施等局限性,可能会高估气候变化的负面影响。

The northeast China is an important maize production region.It is crucialy essential to study the potential impacts of climate change on the yields of maize in northeast China.In this study,the regional climate model and a crop model（WOFOST） were used to simulate the maize yield under the present climate（BS,1961-1990） and future climate change scenarios of B2（2011-2050）.The change of maize yield in the future was predicted.Results showed that WOFOST model could fairly well simulate the maize yield in northeast China and model test results showed that the precision of model results are more than 80% in the 70~80% of the years.Modeling results showed that in the future of 10 to 20 years,the yield in a large parts of north region in northeast China has the potential to increase.As far as the whole northeast region concerned,the range of yield increase is small.In the 2030s and 2040s,the maize yields in the large parts of northeast region will decrease due to the influences of climate change.In the future 40 years,the maize yields of northeast region will decrease and the decrease range is about 9.5%.Adaptation is not be included in this study.Therefore,the projected negtive influence might be overestimated.