动态奥肯定律理论在中美数据中的检验与比较

Dynamic Okun's Law:Test and Comparison with Chinese and US Data

在完善动态奥肯定律理论的基础上,采用HP方法获得中美产出波动及失业波动数据,并进行了实证分析,其结果表明:美国存在动态奥肯定律,产出波动滞后期值对失业波动存在显著影响,经济周期中产出波动对失业波动存在显著差异的长期乘数作用;中国不存在动态奥肯定律。中美动态奥肯定律存在的差异性可能在于中美之间的资源禀赋、市场机制、数据可靠性的不同,并以此提出相应建议。

On the basis of improved dynamic Okun ＇ s law, this paper uses the HP approach to obtain Chinese and US data of output and unemployment fluctuations and makes an empirical analysis. The findings are as follows ： Dynamic Okun＇ s law is true for the US, with significant effect of lagged values of output fluctuations on unemployment fluctuations and long-term multiplier effect of output fluctuations in business cycles on unemployment fluctuations. But it is not true for China. This disparity may stem from their differences in resource endowment, market mechanism and data reliability. Recommendations are given accordingly.