图们江下游降水量时间序列变化特征研究

Characteristics of rainfall time changes of the Tumen river downstream

基于图们江下游流域1956—2010年近55年来河东、珲春、圈河3个水文站逐月降水量资料与同期太阳黑子数数据,运用统计学中的趋势分析、累计距平等方法针对图们江下游流域降水量的时间特性进行分析。结果表明:降水量主要集中在5～9月,占全年总降水量的78.0%～78.7%;季节降水量分配不均,夏季贡献率最大,为57.7%,从变化趋势来看,春冬季降水量呈上升趋势,夏秋季呈下降趋势;降水量的年际变化呈下降趋势。太阳黑子相对数出现极值的年份并不与图们江下游降水出现极值的年份相一致,但在太阳黑子峰值年的一两年附近,降水量出现异常的现象较常见。

Based on Tumen River downstream watershed＇s in 1956--2010 rainfall information from month to month compared with the number of sunspots, which from the Hedong, Hunchun, Quanhe three stations. By using statistical data of the trend analysis, accumulated anomaly, cycle analysis methods to figure the rainfall time characteristics of Tumen River downstream. The results showed that 1） Precipitation mainly concentrated in May to September, total rainfall of 78.7 % ;79.5 ;2） Season precipitation distri- bution is non-uniform, the maximizing contribution is summer, 58. 1%, from the trend of changes, spring,winter rainfall is rising and the summer,fall declined; 3） The interannual variability of rainfall dedi- ned, the year that sunspots relative the extreme value doesn＇t appear with the year that precipitation ap- pears extreme consistent in Tumen River downstream, hut near one or two year of the peak years of sunspots, the precipitation abnormal phenomenon is common.