基于Markov模型的城市土地利用景观格局分析及预测——以六盘水市为例

Analysis and forecast of urban land use landscape pattern based on Markov Model——a case of Liupanshui City

通过景观结构及景观格局指数分析贵州省六盘水市中心城区1990年～2010年生态环境变化的趋势及原因,并通过Markov模型预测了2020年～2050年研究区景观格局演变趋势,结果表明:①研究区20a间灌木林地显著增加、耕地尤其是水田大量减少.②20a间研究区建设用地大量增加,斑块由零散分布逐渐连成片;耕地斑块的破碎化程度提高,且形状越趋复杂.③1990年～2010年间研究区内景观结构发生了较大变化,景观空间连接性下降,多样性增加,破碎化程度提高,斑块的空间镶嵌趋向复杂,景观组分趋向均匀分布.④通过预测可知,随着城市化进程的加快研究区景观破碎化程度将进一步增大,斑块的空间镶嵌更加趋向复杂,景观组分进一步呈均匀化分布.

With landscape structure and landscape pattern index,the trend and cause of the ecological environment variation of the downtown area of Liupanshui in Guizhou Province from 1990 to 2010 was analyzed and the evolving trend of landscape pattern in the study area from 2020 to 2050 was forecast using Markov Model.The results showed that： ①in the past two decades,the Shrub land increased significantly,and the paddy field increased greatly in the study area.②the construction land in the study area increased greatly in the past two decades,the formerly scattered distributed patches gradually merged;the fragmentation degree of cultivation land patches deepened and its shapes became more complex.③the landscape structure in the study area changed greatly from 1990 to 2010,the landscape spatial connectivity degree lowered with its increased diversity and deepened fragmentation degree.The patch spatial mosaic tended to be complicated and the landscape constituent tended to distribute uniformly.④ according to the forecast results,with the rapid urbanization,the landscape fragmentation degree of the study area would deepen more,the patch spatial mosaic would tend to be more complex and the landscape constituent would tend to distribute more uniformly.