黑龙江省杨树烂皮病气象预报模型的适应性分析

Adaptability Analysis on Meteorological Forecast Model of Valsa Sordida Nit in Heilongjiang Province

在构建东北地区杨树烂皮病发生发展气象适宜度预报模型的基础上,选取黑龙江省西部地区5个试验点,以1972-1974年当地杨树烂皮病观测记录为标准,对该模型进行局部地区应用试验。结果表明:仅利用当地气象观测站的气象数据进行气象适宜度等级预报的准确率比较低,总体预报准确率仅为38.07%,而对气象要素进行空间插值能把预报准确率提高到72.16%。此研究可为黑龙江省气象部门进行杨树烂皮病的气象适宜度预报提供技术参考。

Based on the forecasting model of meteorological suitability for occurrence and development of Valsa sordida Nit in north-east China, the model is applied and tested based on the data of 1972 - 1974 from 5 observation stations of Heilongjiang province. The results show that the forecasting accuracy is 38.07% if only the data of local weather stations are used for forecasting. But the accuracy could be increased to 72. 16% if these data are processed by GIS spatial interpolation technique. This study could provide meteorological departments of Heilongjiang province the technological reference for forecasting meteorological suitability of Valsa sordida Nit.