汶川8.0级地震区域地震能量场分析

Analysis of regional seismic energy field before Wenchuan M_S 8.0 earthquake

将地震活动作为随机场,将地震释放能量作为地震活动场的基本要素,采用自然正交函数(或称经验正交函数)展开方法,讨论了2008年汶川8.0级地震前区域地震活动能量场的时间和空间特征.结果表明,在汶川8.0级地震前能量场的几个主要特征值对应的特征向量(典型场)的时间权重因子出现了非常突出的上升或下降异常变化,主要典型场的空间图像也显示出一些异常分布特征,可作为地震预测的一种异常指标.笔者认为该方法是一种值得进一步探讨的地震活动性预测方法.

Taking the seismic activity as the random field and taking the energy released by earthquakes as the basic elements of the seismicity field, the method of natural perpendicular function （or named experiential perpendicular function） development has been adopted to discuss the spatiotemporal features about the energy field of the regional seismic activity before Ms 8.0 earthquake, Wenchuan, Sichuan, 2008. The results have showed that, before Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake, the time weight factors of the eigenvectors （typical field） of the energy field that several key eigenvalues correspond to before Wenchuan Ms 8.0 earthquake have appeared very evident rising or decreasing abnormal changes. The spatial image of the key typical fields has also showed some abnormal distributional features which could be the short--term index for earthquake forecasting. The author thinks that this method is a seismic activity forecasting method that worth further discussing.