组合方法在电离层TEC短期预报中的应用

APPLICATION OF COMBINATION METHOD IN IONOSPHERE TEC SHORT-TERM FORECAST

在传统的频谱分析法和灰色模型的基础上提出了一种新的组合方法来预报电离层TEC。首先利用频谱分析法计算的残差建立灰色模型,计算后面历元的残差修正值,然后和频谱分析法的预报结果相加。结果表明:组合方法的预报精度约为0.53 TECU;预报值的RMS约为0.65 TECU;预报精度与经纬度有关,与历史数据长度无关。与现有方法相比,该方法预报精度高、所需的数据少、简单易行。

A new combination method based on the frequency spectrum analysis and the grey model is proposed to forecast the ionosphere TEC. First, the grey model is established based on the residuals calculated by the fre- quency spectrum analysis and then to calculate the next epochs＇ residuals and add them to the forecast results from the frequency spectrum analysis. The results indicate that the forecast accuracy is about 0.53 TECU and the RMS error of forecast values is about 0.65 TECU. Forecast accuracy is related to longitude and latitude rather than the length of the used historical data. Compared with existing methods, this method is of higher accuracy with fewer da- ta and has simplicity for promising application in ionosphere TEC short -term forecast.