基于新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型的益阳城市化水平分析

Analysis of Yiyang Urbanization Level Based on Information Renewal GM(1,1)

以益阳市2001年-2010年城市化水平数据为依据,运用灰色系统理论,建立了GM(1,1)和新陈代谢GM(1,1)预测模型;并运用不同方法对2种模型的精度进行了检验,结果表明,新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型优于常规GM(1,1)模型,其精度更高。应用新陈代谢GM(1,1)模型,对益阳市城市化水平未来10年进行预测,其结果符合益阳市城市化的实际情况。

This paper established the GM(1,1) model and information renewal GM(1,1) predicting model on the grey theory,using the data drawn from the 2001-2010 urbanization level of Yiyang.It used different methods to test the accuracy of the two models.The comparison implied that the information renewal GM(1,1) model was superior to the GM(1,1) model because of its higher accuracy,and it could be regarded as a better method in predicting urbanization level.The information renewal GM(1,1) model is applied to the predicting of urbanization level of Yiyang in the period of 10 years,and the result fits the reality very well.