高寒草原区草场可持续利用仿真研究

Simulation Research for Sustainable Utilization of Pastures in the Alpine Steppes

本文提出适合高寒草原区草场可持续利用的仿真理论及理论模型,在此基础上建立高寒草原区草场可持续利用的系统动力学模型,并以普兰县为例,确定了系统动力学模型的参数和主要方程。在对模型有效性进行检验后,本文通过对牧草地面积、牧草地承载量和承载力以及实现草场可持续利用的产业等变量进行模拟仿真,提出加强水能等能源投入、加快旅游产业替代传统产业、改善旅游和朝拜人员数量调控机制、建立处理垃圾污染的机制以及建立生态食物链保护机制等草场可持续利用的政策建议。

This paper presents simulation theory and its theoretical model for sustainable utilization of pastures in alpine steppes, establishes systematic dynamic model of alpine steppe pastures＇ sustainable utilization on the basis, and then determines the parameters and equation of the model taking Purang County as an example. To test the model validity, this artical presents the policy recommendations of sustainable use of pasture through the pasture area, pasture carrying volume and carrying capacity, and industry variables for simulation. The policies include strengthening of water energy and other energy inputs, speeding up the tourism industry to replace the traditional industry, improving personnel regulation mechanism of tourist and pilgrimage, establishing mechanism for handling of waste pollution and for ecological food chain protection.