基于应急报警事件的先重构后建模预测法的探索研究

Exploration and research for forecasting method of reconstructed first before modeling based on emergercy-alarm events

通过大量实验证明了公安110报警事件具备可预测性。该预测模型具备适用性特点,可应用于公安机关实战指挥及政府应急管理部门的预测应用,并辅助决策支持。该创新建模预测过程称为先重构后建模预测法。

This research proved that 110-alarm events have predictability;the applicability of forecast models that could be applied to government emergency management departments and applied for forecasting of public security organ in actual command and supports assistant-decision.This innovative method used high-order AR to synthesize time series of 110-alarm forecasting result to the original signal forecasting result and to be proved through experiments.This innovative modeling and forecasting process is called forecasting method of reconstructed first before modeling.