基于淡水资源账户和污染账户的生态足迹改进模型

Improvement of Ecological Footprint Model Based on Freshwater Resource Account and Pollution Accounts

论文通过增加淡水资源账户和污染账户,对通用的生态足迹模型进行改进,弥补了生态足迹模型中对淡水资源和对生态系统消纳污染物描述的不足,增强了生态足迹模型计测的准确性;同时以实际土地平均生产力法对东江流域涉及地市赣州、梅州、河源、韶关、惠州、广州、东莞和深圳等城市2008年的产量因子进行调整,计算了东江流域涉及8市2008年的生态足迹。结果表明:①2008年东江流域涉及各市的生态足迹和生态承载力差异较大,意味着各市之间的社会经济状况和资源禀赋大不相同。总的人均生态足迹的空间分布为除惠州和深圳外,有由上游至中下游增加的趋势;除淡水外的可利用人均生态承载力的空间分布,则呈现由上游至中下游减少的趋势。②生态足迹的空间变化随人均GDP和/或城镇人口比例的增加呈先增加后减少的趋势,这一结论或许能给流域内外的其他城市就如何减少乃至消除区域生态赤字提供一点启示,指出其经济社会发展的道路和下一步应该努力的方向。③各市除淡水外的总生态足迹均大于其生态承载力,因而整个流域不同程度地均存在生态赤字,即按照当前状况,这些地区都需要继续从区域以外的地方输入自然产品和资源及能源才能维持正常的发展。

In this paper,through a case study conducted in cities involved in Dongjiang River Basin,we improved the ecological footprint model by adding freshwater resource account and pollution account and by adjusting the yield factors using actual average land productivity method.The ecological footprints of eight cities,i.e.,Ganzhou,Meizhou,Heyuan,Shaoguan,Huizhou,Guangzhou,Dongguan and Shenzhen in the Basin in 2008 were evaluated using our revised ecological footprint model.The results showed that： 1） The ecological footprint and the ecological capacity of each city were sizably different from the other seven cities within the Basin.This reflects the differences both in natural resources endowment and in socio-economic development stage among the eight cities within the basin.The summed ecological footprint per capita increased spatially from the upstream to midstream and to downstream except for Huizhou and Shenzhen cities.While the available total per capita ecological capacity of cropland,forestland,pastureland,built-up land,fishing land and fossil-energy land decreased spatially from the upstream to midstream and to downstream.2） As the per capita GDP and/or the urbanized population ratio increased,the spatial variation of the per capita ecological footprint increased first and then turned to decrease,showing a similar trend that EKC（environmental Kuznets curve） once expressed.3） The total ecological footprint of all eight cities within the Basin exceeded the corresponding ecological capacity except for the freshwater resource,and thus there existed a global ecological deficit within the Basin.This indicates all the eight cities within the Basin have to import,more or less,natural products,resources and energy from outside regions at present,to sustain the normal development according to their current consumption standard and production conditions.