中国二氧化碳排放强度的地区差异分析

Empirical Analysis of the Regional Differences of China's Carbon Dioxide Emissions Intensity

本文采用IPCC的方法测算了1995-2009年中国省际层面二氧化碳排放量,并根据Dagum(1997)提出的基尼系数及其按子群分解方法实证研究了中国二氧化碳排放强度的地区差异及其演变态势。实证结果显示:中国二氧化碳排放强度在地区分布上呈现明显的非均衡特征;中国二氧化碳排放强度的地区差异呈增大趋势,但并不明显;利用基尼系数及其子群分解方法对中国二氧化碳排放强度进行了地区分解,结果表明地区间差距对地区差异贡献率增加,地区内差距贡献率变化不明显,超变密度贡献率呈下降态势。

In this paper,we measure China＇s provincial-level carbon dioxide emissions of 1995-2009 with IPCC method,and empirically study the regional differences of China＇s carbon dioxide emissions intensity according to the Gini coefficient and its subgroup decomposition method which was put forward by Dagum in 1997.The empirical results show that the regional distribution of China＇s carbon dioxide emissions intensity has obvious disequilibrium characteristics.The regional differences of China＇s carbon dioxide emissions intensity are increasing but not obvious.With Gini Coefficient subgroup decomposition method of Dagum,we decompose regional differences of China＇s carbon dioxide emissions intensity.The results show that the contribution of the differences between regions on regional difference is increasing,the rate of the differences within the region changes inconspicuously,the rate of transvariation intensity is declining.