中国出口品技术含量测度及其差异分析——基于产品内贸易分类的跨国数据

Measure and Difference Analysis of Chinese Exports’Technology-content Value:Based on Evidence of Cross-border data by Intra-product Trade Classification

文章按照世界银行2006年人均GNI分组标准选取了32个国家或地区为样本,在SITC Rev2的3位码分类水平下,采用杜修立、王维国对Hausmann等人修正后的方法,测算了1996-2009年各国出口品技术含量。结果发现:中国出口品技术含量与英国、德国等高收入国家差距较大,与墨西哥、阿根廷等上中等收入国家的差距明显,不敌于金砖国家中的南非,低于东盟的新加坡,在可观测样本中仅居于下中等水平。鉴于此,文章认为中国是外贸大国但绝非外贸强国。未来中国由贸易大国迈向贸易强国的过程中,在高技术领域我们会受到高收入国家的阻击;在中低技术领域,金砖国家和东盟是我们的竞争对象。

The paper has chosen 32 sample countries according to Word Bank ＇ s GNI per-capita classification in 2006, and calculated each country＇ s technology-content value of exports from 1996 to 2009 by 3 yards classification level of SITC Rev2, using the revised Hausmann model developed by Du ＆ Wang. The result is that China＇ s technology-content value of exports is barely in the medium range of calculated samples; far behind those high-income countries such as Britain and Germany; also lagging behind those middle income countries like Mexico and Argentina; even lower than South Africa of BRICS and Singapore of ASEAN. Based on these, the author argues that China is still a large nation but not a power nation in international trade, and in the process from large nation to power nation, China will confront brocks from those high-income countries in high-tech fields and competition from BRICS and ASEAN in middle-tech and low-tech fields.