基于GM(1,1)模型群的重庆货运量预测研究

Study on Freight Volume Prediction of Chongqing Based on GM(1,1) Model Group

货运量是货运市场体系中的重要统计指标,预测货运量发展趋势是制定货运发展战略的前提和基础。文章根据重庆市货运发展状况,收集了重庆2001-2011年货运量的数据,采用GM(1,1)模型群对重庆市货运量进行模拟、预测。经过模型精度检验,最后选择等维灰数递补GM(1,1)模型对未来四年内的重庆货运量进行预测。

The freight volume is an import statistical index of the freight market system, so the prediction of developing tendency of freight volume is the precondition and foundation to formulate development strategy of the freight volume. On the basis of the freight development of Chongqing, this paper collects the data of freight volume in 2001-2011, and uses grey GM（1,1） model group to forecast the freight volume. Through the accuracy test, This paper select the same-distance greynumber＇s step-supplement GM（1,1） model to predict Chongqing＇s freight volume in the next four years.