东道主效应的测算——兼论伦敦奥运会中国金牌数超越美国的必然性

CALCULATION OF HOME ADVANTAGE AND ANALYSIS OF INEVITABILITY CHINA EXCEEDING US IN GOLD MEDALS IN THE LONDON OLYMPICS GAMES

通过分析体育比赛中东道主效应产生的原因,提出了东道主效应的简单测算方法;通过考察了近几届奥运会中美金牌、奖牌的具体对比情况,利用二次滑动平均、二次指数平滑、自回归等多模型综合预测法推算了2012年伦敦奥运会中国队和美国队的金牌、奖牌数量.奥运会比赛中东道主效应确实存在,而且越是小国越明显;中国在近几届奥运会上金牌、奖牌总量持续增加,美国增加不明显,甚至有下降的趋势;预计在2012年伦敦奥运会上,中国将获得金牌49枚左右,而美国将获得金牌36枚左右;中国还将在金牌总数上超过美国,但奖牌总数与美国仍有差距.参加奥运会的最主要目的是沟通与世界各国的联系,提高本国的形象和地位.我们要有大国的襟怀,避免狭隘的民族主义,不能拿了金牌丢了世界.

This paper analyzed the reasons of home advantages in sports games,and devised measurement of home advantages;The total number of Olympics medals were compared between the Chinese and US teams in recent Olympics games,the potential number of medals the two teams are likely to win at the London 2012 Olympics Games were predicted by multiple parameter models such as the double moving average method,second exponential smoothing method and autoregressive model.It was found that home advantages indeed exist for the Olympic Games,being more pronounced for smaller teams;In recent Olympics Games,the number of medals Team China won has been increasing,but that for the US either remained steady or rather been declining;This paper predicts that during the 2012 Games,Team China may win 49 gold medals and the US 36.Team China will overtake Team U.S.in gold medals,but not in total.Bear in mind that countries participate in the Olympics Games to communicate with the rest of the world,to improve national image and to enhance international status.Team China should therefore be broad-minded and avoid narrow-minded nationalism