基于SARIMA模型的黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求预测

International Demand Forecast of Ice-snow Tourism in Heilongjiang Province on the Basis of SARIMA Model

选取黑龙江省1990—2011年冰雪旅游入境人次的月度时间序列为研究样本,建立SARIMA模型对黑龙江省冰雪旅游国际需求进行分析预测。结果表明,SARIMA(4,1,4)(1,1,1)4模型的拟合度和短期预测效果都较好。通过应用SARIMA模型进行冰雪旅游预测,以期对黑龙江省旅游企业的冰雪旅游国际客源市场开发及政府部门制定冰雪旅游发展战略和政策调整提供重要的理论依据。

The sample of mothly time series of the inbound arrivals of ice- snow tourism from 1990 to 2011 in Heilongjiang Province was chosen. This paper analyzed and forecasted the international demand of ice - snow tourism in Heilongjiang Province with the SARIMA model. The conclusion was that the fitting level and the short - time forecast were good. The result of the forecast could be the important foundation for the tour enterprises in Heilongjiang Province to develop the markets of the international passengers of the ice - snow tourism and the government to formulate the devel- opment strategy and adjust policy of ice - snow tourism.