基于GM(1,1)三次曲线模型的发明专利对大型企业利润影响研究

Study on the Influence of Invention Patent to Large-scale Enterprise Profit Based on GM(1,1) Cubic Curve Model

在运用GM(1,1)矫正利润指标统计误差和分布规律的前提下,在明确发明专利对大型企业利润存在正向影响作用的基础上,以1998～2009年我国大型企业的数据为样本,利用SPSS16.0软件得出发明专利对我国大型企业利润影响的关系模型:y=0.631+1.525x-1.197x2+0.317x3。研究结果表明,GM(1,1)是消除数据主观统计误差、矫正数据分布规律的有效工具,其与计量经济学模型的结合是传统计量经济学模型的改进,能更精确地反映出变量之间的作用关系;在发明专利的影响下,利润呈现出减速增长、平缓下降、持续增长三个阶段,发明专利作用的滞后性集中表现于数量持续增加,而开发利用效率下降的第二阶段。

By using GM （ 1,1 ） corrected the statistics error and distribution of profit, on basis of confirming that invention patent has positive influence on large - scale enterprise profit and using the large - scale enterprise data during 1998 and 2009 ,this paper obtains the relation model y = 0. 631 ＋ 1. 525x - 1. 197x2 ＋ 0. 317x3 between invention patent and large - enterprise profit by SPSS16.0. The results show that： GM（ 1,1 ） is an effective tool to eliminate subject errors and correct distribution law of data, and it is an improvement by combining it to traditional economic models, which will reflect the func- tion relations among variables more accurately;under the influence of invention patent, the profit shows three stages of slow growth, gentle decline and sustainable growth, and the hysteresis effect exists in the second stage when the number of patent is increasing but the utilization is descending.