基于震级法的新兴技术经济效应评估实证分析

An Empirical Analysis of Economic Impact Assessment of Emerging Technologies Based on Seismic Approach

借鉴有关研究成果,采用"震级法"——即将衡量地震强度的麦加利等级引入新兴技术经济效应评估中,提出了新兴技术经济效应评估等级量表,将震级原理应用于经济体系中,构建了用于评估经济体系中新兴技术经济效应的理论框架,解决了新兴技术经济效应评估中的量化描述问题。用"震级法"所作的实证研究结果表明,目前生物医药新兴技术领域的经济影响依次大于通信传输、航空航天。

By references of relevant researches, this paper adoptes ＂seismic approach＂, that is introducing the seismic scale of Mercalli used for measuring the intensity of earthquake, into economic impact assessment of emerging technologies, and proposes the scale of economic impact assessment of emerging technologies. The principle of seismic is applied to economic system, and the theoretical framework is constructed to evaluate the economic impact of emerging technologies in the econom- ic system. The quantitative and descriptive problem about estimating economic impact of emerging technologies is solved. The empirical analysis results shows that currently the economic impact of emerging technologies in communication transmis- sion field is larger than in aerospace, and smaller than in biomedical.