武汉城市圈经济-资源-环境系统发展的时空特征

Space-time Structure of the Economy-Resource-Environment System Development in Wuhan Metropolitan Area

运用SPSS13.0数理统计软件,建立都市圈经济-资源-环境系统(ERE)评价指标体系,引入层次分析法,构建ERE系统发展函数,以武汉城市圈为例,系统揭示武汉城市圈ERE系统各子系统发展的时空规律:(1)时间演化上,经济子系统保持指数增长速度,整个圈域经济处于高速运行中;资源子系统波动变化明显,整体上呈先上升、再下降、后上升的倒S型曲线,表现为缓慢上升、快速下降、迅速抬升三个阶段特征;环境子系统整体上呈指数律快速发展,除了在1999年出现一定程度下滑外,整个环境系统呈良性发展态;(2)空间分异上,经济子系统城际差异明显,形成以武汉为核心的三等级圈层结构,资源环境子系统整体受经济发展方式影响显著,呈现三集团发展态势。由于经济发展、资源环境条件、历史基础、政策机制等差异,武汉城市圈城际资源环境系统整体发展空间不对应,形成四大类型:资源环境好—经济发展型、资源环境好—经济滞后型、资源环境差—经济发展型、资源环境差—经济滞后型。

This paper establishes an ERE evaluation index system in metropolitan area with the mathematical statistics SPSS13.0 and creates a function of the ERE system development by introducing Analytic Hierarchy Process. Then this arti- cle took Wuhan Metropolitan Area as an example, and revealed the temporal and spatial distribution about the coupling sys- tematically ： （ 1 ） from the perspective of time evolution, economic subsystem maintained an exponential growth rate, and the whole area moved at a high speed;resources subsystem revealed obvious fluctuation, and increased first, then dropped down after the increase with an inverted ＂S＂ shape. The whole resources subsystem can be divided into ＂slow rise＂ ,＂ rapid de- cline＂ and ＂rapid uplift＂ ;the environment subsystem developed rapidly with an exponential law as a whole;except for a cer- tain degree of decline in 1999 ,the whole environment subsystem enjoyed the sound development. （2） from the perspective of spatial differentiation,the economic subsystem of the inter- city was significantly different, forming the three level circle structures with Wuhan as its center. Because of the differences in economic development,resources and environment condi- tions, historical basis, and policy mechanisms, the way of economic development had a great influence on the resources and environment subsystem, showing a development trend of the three groups. And Wuhan Metropolitan Area was divided into four tendencies ： good resources and environment - promising economic, good resource environment - lagging economy, poor resource and environment - promising economic, poor resource and environment - lagging economic.