国际资本流动对我国低碳经济发展影响的实证分析——基于主成分分析法

Empirical Analysis on Influence of International Capital Flow on China's Low-carbon Economy Development:Based on Principal Component Analysis

在构建低碳经济发展水平综合评价指标体系的基础上,运用主成分分析法研究了1985—2009年我国低碳经济发展水平的变化趋势,进一步对FDI、ODI与我国低碳经济发展水平的关系以及前两者对后者的作用途径进行了实证分析。研究结果显示:1985—2009年期间,我国低碳经济发展水平呈不断上升态势,FDI和ODI对我国低碳经济发展均有正面的促进作用,而促进作用的差异主要由作用途径不同导致。最后提出,应积极优化FDI的产业分布结构和来源结构,增加技术寻求型ODI所占比重。

This paper constructs the evaluation index system of low-carbon economy development,and studies the change trend of China＇s low- carbon economy development during 1985-2009 by the method of principal component analysis. And then it empirically analyzes the relationship between FDI as well as ODI and China＇s low-carbon economy development and the effect pathway of the former on the latter. The result shows as follows;during 1985-2009,the development level of China＇s low-carbon economy shows a rising trend; both FDI and ODI have promoting effects on China＇s low-carbon economy development,and the difference in these promoting effects is caused by the difference in effect pathway. Finally, it proposes that it is necessary to optimize industrial distribution structure and source structure of FDI, and increase the ratio of technol- ogy-oriented ODI.