我国农资价格、粮食价格和农村CPI之间传导机制分析——基于农业产业链视角

Analysis on Transmission Mechanism between Agricultural Production Price,Grain Price and Rural CPI:Based on Perspective of Agricultural Chain

从农业产业链的视角,运用向量误差修正模型实证分析了农资价格指数、粮食价格指数和农村居民消费价格指数之间的传导机制。得出以下结论:从长期来看,农资价格指数、粮食价格指数和农村居民消费价格指数之间存在协整关系;从短期来看,农业产业链的价格传导以需求推动为主、以成本推动为辅。

This paper empirically analyzes the transmission mechanism between agricultural production price,grain price and rural CPI by the veetor error correction model from the perspective of agriculture chain. The main conclusions are as follows;in the long term, there exist co-inte- gration relationships among them ; in the short term, there is the interaction effect in price transmission chain, which is driven by demand mainly, supplemented by cost-push.