某滑坡体岩土参数概率分布统计分析方法研究

The Statistical Analysis Technique Research on Probability Distribution of Geotechnical parameters of One Landslide

为了给某坝址比选提供滑坡体的岩土参数概率分布类型,解决小样本条件下岩土参数概率分布难以确定的问题,通过勘察试验数据分析,工程类比分析等方法确定了滑坡体可靠性计算参数的分布类型及参量,以此为先验函数,并基于Bayes统计理论对滑坡体岩土参数进行优化研究,以其中的"上田"滑坡体为例对岩土参数进行优化计算,计算结果表明,优化后方差和变异系数均有下降,可以提高滑坡防治工程的可靠性,从而达到优化的目的。

In order to provide geotechnical parameters probability distribution types of landslide for the dam selection of Ka-La hydroelectric station, and to solve the problem of difficult determination of the conditions of small sample probability distribution of geotechnical parameters. The parameters of the probability distribution types and parameters analysis are determined by testing survey data and analogy analysis of engineering. Taking this as prior- distribution, and a Bayes method is used to promote the statistical accuracy of geotechnical parameters. The geotechnical parameters of ＂Shangtian＂ landslide as example are optimized. The calculated results indicate that the optimized variance and coefficient of variation are smaller leading to enhancing the reliability of landshide protection. Therefore the object of optimizing have been n^alized.