基于累积Logit模型的驾驶人路径改换行为影响因素分析

Analysis of the influencing factors of drivers' route-changing behavior based on cumulative Logit model

基于调查数据,采用累积Logit模型对影响驾驶人路径改换行为的影响因素进行综合分析,通过理论与实证分析,分析影响路径改换行为的主要因素.首先采用SP调查的方式,用离散选择分析法对影响路径改换的因素进行多变量分析;然后,建立多元累积Logit模型,并利用经济学的基本原理,建立路径改换行为的动态评价模型.分析表明:在拥挤收费的前提下,影响驾驶人路径改换的主要因素,取决于不同的收费额度、驾驶人个体属性(驾车类型、月收入等).这一研究结果可以应用到交通规划与管理过程中.

Based on the survey data, a Logit model is used to comprehensively analyse the contributing factors of drivers＇ route-changing. We hope to explore the main contributing factors of path-changing through theoretical analysis and empirical analysis. First, based on the stated preference survey, we use discrete choice model to analysis multivariable factors which influence the route-changiug behavior. Then the Logit model and the evaluation model of path choice behavior were established by using basic principles of economics. The conclusion shows that drivers probably choose to change the route because of congestion charging. The effect depends on the level of charging bill, the individual attributes of drivers （vehiete type, income, ete）. And the conclusion can be applied to some procedures of urban traffic planning and management.