我国能源产业经济效应的动态评价

Dynamical Evaluation of the Economic Effect of Energy Industry in China

近10年来,我国能源开发利用结构发生了较大变化。为了动态揭示能源市场的动态变化,选定煤炭开采业,石油和天然气开采业,电力及蒸汽、热水生产和供应业,石油加工业和炼焦、煤气及煤制品业等5个产业,在1987~2007年间8张投入产出表的基础上,运用投入产出分析方法对这些能源产业之间的产业关联度、经济效应及其变化过程进行了实证研究。结果表明,能源部门对国民经济社会发展中更多地体现为推动效应,煤炭开采业发展稳定,但电力和蒸汽、热水生产和供应业成为能源利用的主体形式,表明二次能源已经成为我国能源利用的主要形式。石油在能源结构中的地位也进一步得到了加强。

During the past 10 years, the development and utilization structure of China＇s energy has changed much. Many literatures put their emphasis on static change of structure or economic effect. To disclose the dynamic structural change of energy market, we used eight China input- output tables from 1987 to 2007 and analyzed the industrial linkage, economic effect and change process of China＇s energy by input - output method. Coal mining industry, petrol and natural gas mining industry, electricity and stream industry, hot water production and support industry, petrol processing industry, coking and coal gas industry are the objects analyzed in this article. The results show that, in these years, the energy sector phyed its vale more in the push effect for the benefit of our ecnoomy, and coal industry remains stable, but electricity and steam industry, hot water industry have been the main form of energy utilization. It shows secondary energy has growing to be the main form of energy utilization gradually, oil＇s main statue in energy mix has been strengthened further.