产业集聚、城市规模与碳排放

Study on Industry Agglomeration,Urban Scale and Carbon Emission

本文利用2005年全国直辖市、副省级城市、地级市等283个城市市辖区的统计数据建立计量经济学模型研究城市规模扩张过程中产业集聚对碳排放的影响。研究发现：（1）产业集聚对碳排放具有＂反弹效应＂和＂节能效应＂,产业集聚程度提高1%,城市碳排放下降8.33%~10.57%;（2）不同规模的城市,产业集聚对碳排放的影响是不同的,人口规模在300~1000万的特大城市相对其他规模等级的城市更适合中国的低碳城市化进程。

This paper uses the data of 283 cities of China in 2005. We build a model to analyze the relationship and mechanism between industry agglomeration and carbon emission during the expanding of urban scale. We find that （1） industry agglomeration has both ＂rebounded effect＂ and ＂energy-saving effect＂ on carbon emission, ff the rate of industry agglomeration increases 1%, the carbon emission will rise up by 8.33% - 10.57% ; （2） the effect of industry agglomeration on carbon emission changes with urban scale, agglomeration in the city with 3 -10 million population will relatively decrease carbon emission and make China＇s urbanization low- carbon.