河南省小麦保险费率厘定研究

Wheat insurance premium ratemaking in Henan Province

针对我国农作物保险实践中仍然使用"试探性"的经验费率而忽视纯费率研究的问题,使用经验费率法和正态分布、Weibull分布及Logistic分布3种单产分布模型对河南省5市的小麦保险纯费率进行厘定。实证研究结果发现:焦作市的小麦单产服从正态分布,单产均值为524kg,纯保险费率为1.77%;新乡市小麦单产服从Weibull分布,其单产均值为458kg,纯保险费率为1.14%;而鹤壁市、洛阳市和驻马店市服从Logistic分布,其单产均值分别为104、341和421kg,据其测定的纯保险费率分别是6.32%、4.70%和2.55%。实证研究结果表明,不同分布模型拟合出的费率不同,应该充分考虑不同地区小麦单产本身的真实分布状况选择最优的拟合分布模型;不同地区的小麦单产均值和保险费率有差异,各地一刀切的保险费率对参与保险的各方利益主体而言是不合理的。

Considering the problem that tentative experienced insurance premium rates still being used,but the pure premium rate is neglected in the practice of the crop insurance in China,this paper used Normal distribution model,Weibull distribution model and Logistic distribution model to decide the wheat insurance premium rate of 5 districts in Henan Province.It was found that the wheat yield distribution of Jiaozuo district obeys Normal distribution,and wheat insurance unit yield is 524 kg,and insurance premium rate should be 1.77%;the wheat yield distribution of Xinxiang district obeys Weibull distribution,and wheat insurance unit yield is 458 kg,and insurance premium rate should be 1.14%;the wheat yields of Hebi,Luoyang and Zhumadian district obey Logistic distribution,and their wheat insurance unit yields are 104,342,and 422 kg,respectively,accordingly their insurance premium rates are 6.32%,4.70% and 2.55%,respectively.The empirical results shown that the insurance premium rate from different distribution models are different,so it is necessary to select the optimal distribution model according to the actual wheat yield distribution of different districts;moreover,average wheat yield and premium rate in various districts are different.Consequently,the same insurance premium is not proper for each party participated in the wheat insurance.