摘要
结合"十二五"电网滚动规划以及饱和年电网规划,介绍了一种考虑饱和年影响的近景年的城市电网规划方法。用空间负荷预测法预测饱和年负荷;用定性预测技术和定量预测技术相结合的方法预测近景年(2012年～2016年)的负荷值。然后根据饱和年负荷值制定饱和年高压网架,再参照饱和年制定的网架图以及近景年负荷预测值回推2012年～2016年逐年高压网架,经过多次切改和演变,最终得到合理的近景年主网网架。
Combined with the roiling planning of the 12th five-year-plan scheme and the power grid planning of the saturated years, the improved planning method of city pow- er grid is proposed in this paper. Firstly, the saturated years ＂load is forecasted by using of space load forecasting method, based on which the number of 110kV substations and the high-voltage power grid are determined. Secondly, the load value in the recent years （2012-2016） is forecasted by combining of qualitative and quantitative prediction technology. The detail process is that the year-by-year high-voltage pow- er grid from 2012 to 2016 is obtained by using of backstep- ping method which combined the predict load value in recent years and the power grid map established by saturated year, which is predicted according to saturated year. Finally, reasonable main power grid in recent years is determined after many times of modification and evolution.
出处
《现代电力》
北大核心
2012年第3期12-16,共5页
Modern Electric Power
关键词
电网规划
饱和年
负荷预测
高压网架
容载比
power grid planning
saturated years
load forecasting
high voltage power grid
the ratio of capacity
