人工堆山工程地基沉降Usher-Spillman模型预测

The settlement prediction of the heaping hills foundation by Usher-Spillman model

论文以镇江市体育中心大型堆山项目的现场沉降监测数据为基础,分别采用Verhulst模型灰色预测法、Asaoka法和Usher-Spillman组合数学模型对山体沉降进行了预测。其中Usher-Spillman组合数学模型对山体沉降进行拟合分析,得出沉降随时间变化的拟合方程,拟合相关系数可达0.98以上,其精度远远高于Verhulst和Asaoka法。该模型具有适应性强、预测准确度高的特点。本文运用该模型对镇江市体育会展中心堆山工程的1、2号监测点地基沉降进行了预测分析,得出1、2号监测点的最终沉降量分别为538.54mm和268.84mm。

Verhulst grey model, Asaoka model and Usher-Spillman mathematical model were respectively used to predict the final sedimentation based on the monitoring data of site sedimentation in heaping hill of ZhenJiang Sports Centre. It has been found that Usher-Spillman combination mathematical modol has good adaptability and high precision. The fitting correlation coefficient is 0.98 above, which has accuracy much higher than Verhulst grey model and Asaoka method. The final foundation settlement of monitoring points No. 1 and No. 2 are 538.54 mm and 268.84 mm, respectively, according to the model of prediction.