新疆全要素生产率估算及经济增长方式研究:1978—2009年

Total Factor Productivity Estimation and Economic Growth Pattern in Xinjiang

文章基于向量误差修正模型,运用"索洛残差"法计算出新疆1978—2009年全要素生产率的变动情况,对新疆产出增长进行了分阶段分解和源泉核算,并通过对测算结果的因素分析,证实新疆经济增长属资本推动型,并探讨其对当前经济增长方式转变的启示。

Based on the VEC model, this paper, applying Solow＇s Residual Method, estimated the total factor productivity growth rate and made a phrase analysis of the output growth and the sources of economic growth from 1979 to 2009 in Xinjiang. The main conclusions are as follows： （1） the total factor productivity growth rate was of a fluctuant nature and fluctuated markedly and frequently before 1993, but became steady after 1993 and expressed some kind of turnover in 2009; （2） the growth was capital-driven. This paper further discussed their implications to the present change of economic growth in Xinjiang.