血吸虫病灰色预测的研究

RESEARCH ON THE CREY PREDICATION OF SCHISTOSOMIASIS

目的探讨灰色系统理论对血吸虫病８项疫情指标的预测可信性。方法用灰色理论对血吸虫病８项疫情指标建立预测模型。用“残差建模”提高原点精度；用“等维递补灰数动态预测”来动态地预测未来结果；引进“环境干涉因子”修正预测结果。结果对血吸虫病各项疫情指标进行了中长期预测。根据研究分析和预测的结果对血吸虫病防治工作提出了概要的对策。结论这一研究为血吸虫病的预测提供了新的重要方法，近期预测结果已得到证实，未来预测将进一步验证。

Objective To explore the reliabitity of the Grey Model on the predication of 8 epidemic indexes of schistosomiasis. Methods The predication models of 8 epidemic indexes of schistosomiasis were established based on the Grey Model, improving the original Precision by using 'Variance Built Model', predicating the results dynamically using 'Same Dimension-Progressively Increased Grey Dynamic Predication', modifying the predication results by considering the 'Environment Interference Factors'. Results The mid-term and long-term predications about those epi- demic indexes of schistosomiasis were made based on the built models. The measurements about how to prevent and cure schistosomiasis were summarized according to the results of this research. Conclusion This research provided new and important means for prediction of schistosomiasis. The short-term predication results have been confirmed and the long-term predications need to be further studied.