中国居民消费嵌入式碳排放增长的驱动因素研究

Driving Factors for the Growth of Chinese Carbon Emissions Embedded in Household Consumption

本文结合环境投入产出—生命周期分析(EIO-LCA)和结构分解分析(SDA),将1992—2007年中国居民消费嵌入式碳排放的增长,分解为生产系统和消费系统的驱动效应。研究结果表明:生产系统中因素的总效应始终为负值,消费系统中因素的总效应始终为正值,且后者的绝对值大于前者,进而引起嵌入式碳排放总量的增加。进一步研究发现,技术进步始终是抑制碳排放增长的最主要因素,而消费模式的改变已成为推动嵌入式碳排放增长的主要力量,且消费模式变化的增排效应强于技术进步的减排效应。基于以上分析,我们认为,目前仅仅针对生产系统的减排政策和措施并不能实现有效减排,减排需要生产系统和消费系统同时改进。除了技术节能外,我国还应把消费领域的节能作为"节能减排"一个重要内容,并采取更有力的措施来引导和促使居民消费模式向低碳方向转变。

Combined the EIO-LCA （ Environmental Input-Output- Life Cycle Analysis） and SDA （ Structural Decomposition Analy- sis）, this paper decomposes the growth of 1997--2007 Chinese carbon emissions embedded in household consumption into driving effects of production system and consumption system. The results show that the total effect of the production system is always negative while the total effect of consumption system is positive, and the latter is greater than the absolute value of the former, making the total embedded carbon emissions increase. Technical effects is always the most important factor in reducing carbon emissions, while the chan- ges in consumption patterns have become the major force in promoting the embedded carbon emissions, and the increasing effect of con- sumption pattern was greater than the reduction effect of technological progress. Based on the above analyses, we conclude that only for emission reduction policies in production system cannot achieve their goals unless both production and consumption systems taken into consideration. In addition to technological progress, China should also let the consumption play a role in energy saving, and take moreefforts to make the consumption pattern shift to low-carbon direction.