论出生性别比失衡背后的生育意愿变迁

Study on Differentiation Changes of Fertility Desire behind Imbalance of Sex Ratio at Birth

出生性别比失衡已经成为学界和政界共同关注的重要问题。通过运用"现存统计资料分析"的方法,对近三十年来多项生育意愿调查数据与出生性别比的统计资料进行研究与分析,发现生育意愿各要素的变迁为出生性别比失衡提供了社会心理基础,生育意愿各要素变迁的不协调性与非均衡性——理想子女数逐步减少,性别偏好持续存在,生育目的变化不大,使得生育意愿与出生性别比之间呈现出复杂关系,在生育政策、B超技术等的共同作用下,引致了出生性别比的失衡。要解决这一问题,需要调整政策,打击"两非",加强宣传教育,发展社会保障事业,促进实现真正的男女平等。

The imbalance of sex ratio at birth has become the important issue in the academic and political circles. Using the method of ＂existing statistical data analysis＂, we analysis the fertility desire survey data during more than thirty years and statistical data of sex ratio at birth, and we find that the differentiation changes of fertility desire has provided social psychological basis for the imbalance of sex ratio at birth, the inconsistencies and incompatibility of the fertility desire internal change. Ideal number of children became less and less, gender preferences existed for a long time, and fertility purpose changed little which made the fertility desire exist different relationships associated with the sex ratio at birth. The influence of family plan- ning policy and B ultrasound technology caused the imbalance of sex ratio at birth. To solve this problem, the government should adjust the policy, fight against the ＂two non - ＂, strengthen publicity and education, develop the social security, and promote to achieve real equality.