市场化对中国能源消费强度调节作用的实证研究——基于空间计量模型的分析

An Empirical Study on the Effect of Marketization on Energy Intensity of China—An Analysis Based on Spatial Econometrics Model

如何降低能源强度问题一直是学术界探讨的课题。中国市场化进程不断地加快,而市场化对能源强度的调节机制作用是一项值得探讨的问题。能源强度空间分布与能源资源禀赋分布十分类似。空间自相关检验揭示了省域能源强度存在着显著的空间依赖性。本文通过引入市场化变量作为调节变量建立空间计量经济学模型对能源强度的影响因素进行实证分析。研究结果表明,"能源资源越丰沛,能源强度越高"的命题得到了证实;重工业与能源强度成正比关系,技术进步是降低能源强度的有效因素;在市场化调节机制的作用下,外商直接投资和对外开放明显地改善了能源效率,由于我国能源价格受政府管制,并非真实地反映市场调节行为,因此能源价格未能有效地降低能源强度。最后,本文提出了若干市场经济体制下能源价格改革的政策和建议。

China is the largest energy consumer in the world. Since there are many influential factors being involved in energy use, seeking ways to improve energy efficiency in China is an important yet complex task. From reform and opening-up, marketization process of China has developed gradually. It is significantly important to study the effect of market-mediated regulation on energy efficiency. Through geographical map of energy intensity of provincial level, there is obvious space clustering and higher energy intensity is concentrated on economically undeveloped or energy resourceful regions. Therefore, the paper hypothesized that the more energy resourceful, the high energy intensity. The result of spatial autocorrelation test indicates that energy intensity presents spatial interdependence to some degree among Chinese provinces. The Moran scatter-plot displays that the comparatively centralized phenomenon tend to be occur in the province with parallel energy intensity, which is a spatial linkage structure that is attracted by high-high or low-low regions and repelled by high-low or low-high regions. The LISA clustering plot of per capita energy reserve illustrated that energy intensity is usually higher in the energy resourceful regions. The marketization variable is brought into analytic framework. A spatial econometric regression method was established to analyze the impact of several relevant factors on energy intensity. The analytic results show the hypothesis above is proved and there was significant positive correlation between heavy industry and energy intensity. Technological progress can improve energy efficiency effectively. Under the market-mediated regulation, the energy price cannot low energy intensity, however, foreign direct investment and opening-up can obviously improve energy efficiency.