中国的通货膨胀惯性与通货膨胀不确定性——基于有限理性NKPC模型的分析

Relationship between Inflation Persistence and Inflation Uncertainty in China:An Exploration based on Bounded-rationality Phillips Curve Model

本文拓展有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型并结合中国参数进行校准,然后利用校准模型研究中国通货膨胀惯性特征及其与通货膨胀不确定性之间的关系。结果显示,有限理性菲利普斯曲线模型能很好地模拟出与中国实际通货膨胀惯性类似的特征。进一步研究还发现,研究样本期间,中国通货膨胀惯性总体上呈现先上升而逐渐下降的驼峰型特征,而且与通货膨胀预期不确定性存在正向相关关系。这些发现意味着,我国中央银行货币政策滞后效应正在缩短,而为了进一步降低通胀惯性并提高货币政策有效性,引导通货膨胀预期保持稳定是一大途径。

The article uses an extended bounded rationality Phillips curve model calibrated with monthly data from January 1983 to March 2008 in China to explore the relationship between inflation persistence and inflation uncertainty.The results show that the model fits well with the characteristics of actual inflation persistence which follows an inverted-U shaped curve and is positively related to inflation uncertainty during the sample period.The finding implies the critical role of stable expectation in decreasing inflation persistence.