北京市私人载客小型和微型汽车的仿真模型及政策模拟

A Simulation Model of Private Cars in Beijing for Policy Simulation

本文构建了系统动力学模型用以分析北京市私人载客小型和微型汽车的发展情况。首先,将模型细分为人口、经济、私人载客小汽车三个子模块,通过收入分布和汽车的年度使用成本预测私人汽车的拥有情况。其次,根据模型的模拟结果对2000年-2020年的车辆数量、车辆年龄、新车销量、车辆报废与淘汰进行分析。最后,通过情景分析模拟出不同政策下北京市私人载客小型和微型汽车的不同发展趋势,进一步探讨了了今后的政策建议。

The system dynamics model is built for the analysis of private cars in Beijing. Firstly, by dividing the model into three sub modules including population, economic, and private car, the private car ownership is calculated based on micro - level personal income and automobile annual costs. Secondly, the private car numbers, age distribution, new car sales, and scrappage during the period of 2000 - 2020 are analyzed based on the simulation result. Finally, the effect of different policy on private cars in Beijing is showed through scenario analysis.