中国碳排放驱动因素分解分析

The Decomposition Analysis on the Driving Factors of China's Carbon Emission

本文基于生产部门、居民生活部门的化石能源消费量以及水泥生产量的数据,较全面地测算了2000～2009年我国的碳排放量,并建立了碳排放驱动因素的对数均值迪氏指数(LMDI)分解模型,考察样本期间各因素对我国碳排放量变化的影响。研究结果表明:我国已经跨越了碳排放强度和人均碳排放高峰阶段,但仍处于从人均碳排放量高峰到碳排放总量高峰的过渡阶段。经济增长和城市化是这一阶段碳排放的主要正向驱动力,能源利用效率则是碳排放的主要负向驱动力。

The article calculates China＇s carbon dioxide emission from 2000 to 2009, taking consideration of fossil energy con- sumption of both industrial and residential sectors, together with cement production. Then the driving factors are explored u- sing LMDI decomposition analysis. The results show that Chinas carbon dioxide emission has stepped across the summit of the carbon emission intensity, as well as per capita carbon emission, but still in the way from the summit of per capita carbon e- mission to the summit of total carbon emissions. In this stage, economic development and urbanization are the main positive driving factors of China＇s carbon dioxide emission, and the energy efficiency is the main negative driving factor.