社会预警体系建设的困境及其摆脱

The Difficulty of the Social Early Warning System Construction and Its Way-out

预警和应急之间既有联系又有区别,在公共危机管理中二者互为依托,缺一不可。社会预测和预警的困难性、危机预报的自风险性、危机事件的长周期性、政绩考核制度不完善,构成社会预警进入公共危机管理体制的四重障碍。现阶段,社会预警主要面临评估工具不科学、评估组织体制不健全、评估集成化创新不够三个瓶颈。实现社会预警科学化,应借鉴发达国家建立"政策模拟器"的做法,着力开发社会风险模拟器。

The early warning and emergency have both connection and differences. They are dependant to each other and indispensable in the public crisis management. There are four obstacles for the social early warning entrance into the system of the public crisis management： the difficulty for the social prediction and early warning, the self-risk of the crisis forecasting, the long cycle of the crisis event and the imperfection of performance evaluation system. At present, the scientific of Chinese social early warning has faced the bottlenecks including the assessment tool, evaluation system and operational mechanism, the innovation of the integrated evaluation. To realize the scientific of social early warning, we should draw lessons from the developed countries＇ policy simulator to focus on the development of social risk simulator.