通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与货币增长不确定性之间的关联分析

The Correlation Analysis of Inflation,Inflation Uncertainty and Monetary Growth Uncertainty

我国通货膨胀的冲击可以划分为通货膨胀不确定性的冲击和货币增长不确定性的冲击,通过分析我国通货膨胀、通货膨胀不确定性与货币增长不确定性之间的关联关系,结果显示:我国长期通货膨胀不确定性对通货膨胀产生正向冲击,短期通货膨胀不确定性对通货膨胀产生负向冲击;货币增长过快对通货膨胀长期不确定产生正向冲击,对短期通货膨胀不确定性产生负向冲击。同时,本文也得出了我国通货膨胀率的机制转换与中央银行的货币政策机制的变化之间存在紧密的联系,处于扩张状态的货币供给增加是导致通货膨胀的主要原因。这为如何减少货币政策的不确定性在具体操作上给予了一定的参考价值,明晰货币政策机制变化在通货膨胀-通货膨胀不确定性关系中所扮演的角色起到了一定的作用。

The impact of inflation can be divided into the impact of inflation uncertainty and the impact of money growth uncertainty in China. Through analysis of the relationship among inflation, inflation uncertainty and monetary growth uncertainty, the result shows that long-term inflation uncertainty has a positive impact on inflation while short-term inflation uncertainty has a negative impact on inflation in China. Excessive money growth has a positive impact on long- term inflation uncertainty and a negative impact on short-term inflation uncertainty. At the same time, this paper also demonstration that there are close links between the regime-switching of the inflation and the change of the central bank＇s monetary policy mechanism, and that an expansion of money supply is the main cause of inflation. This research providers a certain reference value for reducing money growth uncertainty and plays a certain role in clarifying the mechanism of monetary policy changes between inflation and inflation uncertainty.